{"id":5719,"date":"2025-10-05T14:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-05T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/musictechohio.online\/site\/yale-study-ai-job-impact\/"},"modified":"2025-10-05T14:30:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-05T14:30:00","slug":"yale-study-ai-job-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/musictechohio.online\/site\/yale-study-ai-job-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"New Yale Study Finds AI Has Had Essentially Zero Impact on Jobs"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ever since OpenAI\u2019s ChatGPT was introduced<\/a> in November 2022, experts and executives have been predicting that it and other AI models will eliminate untold jobs \u2014 forecasts that seem, at a first glance, to have been borne out by the plethora of tech sector layoffs<\/a> in the wake of its debut.<\/p>\n

But a new study<\/a> from Yale University found quite the opposite in the United States, which should give anxious workers some relief as it goes against the hyped up prognostications<\/a> of many tech CEOs.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile anxiety over the effects of AI on today\u2019s labor market is widespread, our data suggests it remains largely speculative,\u201d reads the study from Yale\u2019s Budget Lab, a policy research center on economics.<\/p>\n

The research team analyzed job data from the past 33 months since ChatGPT was released, the employment status of college graduates, and how exposed various groups of workers are to AI tech, among other questions.<\/p>\n

In one analysis, they compared three different groups of workers who have varying levels of exposure to AI technology \u2014 high, middle or low \u2014 and tracked any changes in their share of the workforce since ChatGPT went public. If AI is having any impact at all, you\u2019d expect a decrease in the high and middle exposure groups, but that simply wasn\u2019t the case. In fact, the percentage in each category hasn\u2019t budged much, suggesting that AI is essentially a non-factor, at least so far.<\/p>\n

In another analysis, the Yale team looked at the rate of change in the composition of the American labor force and compared that data to two separate time periods: when computers started gaining wider usage circa 1984 and the explosion in internet entrepreneurship beginning around 1996. The idea was to measure whether AI is transforming the workforce in a historically resonant way.<\/p>\n

Surprisingly, they found that the rate of change in the labor market\u2019s makeup in the wake of AI <\/strong>closely matches the pace when computers and the internet were first taking off. In other words, AI doesn\u2019t appear to be more disruptive than those two technologies \u2014 at least so far \u2014 despite heavy hitters like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei saying that AI<\/a> will cause massive upheaval in the world and that entire sectors of jobs will be lost forever.<\/p>\n

In an analysis of college graduates, the Yale researchers compared the occupational mix \u2014 the spread of workers across different jobs in the labor market, essentially \u2014 of young adults ages 20 to 24 years old, and compared them to older workers ages 25 to 34.<\/p>\n

Starting from the time they graduate from college, they found the occupational mix <\/strong>for both the younger and older cohort match closely. This suggests that AI isn\u2019t having much of an impact on recent college graduates if you compare them to the older group at a similar period <\/strong>of their lives; however, the last several months shows a deviation in this pattern \u2014 of about six percentage points \u2014 that could be due to our current not-so-hot job market<\/a>. (Or, just maybe, it\u2019s showing that AI is starting to affect the labor market.)<\/p>\n

\u201cThe picture of AI\u2019s impact on the labor market that emerges from our data is one that largely reflects stability, not major disruption at an economy-wide level,\u201d the study reads.<\/p>\n

But what explains the depressing job market<\/a> \u2014 most starkly illustrated in a viral chart on X<\/a>, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showing the number of position openings cratering since ChatGPT was released? And what about early career jobs<\/a>, which seem scarce these days, to the chagrin of recent graduates?<\/p>\n

Some think that the softening in the job market should instead be attributed to the US Federal Reserve<\/a> putting a kibosh to the era of zero interest-rate\u00a0policy<\/a> in 2022. Before it ended, companies borrowed massive amounts of capital at cheap rates and plowed them into high-risk startups \u2014 thereby inflating assets, making lots of millionaires, and fueling a gold rush of <\/strong>well-paying tech positions. (Squint at that chart in the previous paragraph and it does seem to support this thesis, with the decline in openings coinciding more cleanly with the interest rate hike than the release of ChatGPT.)<\/p>\n

As for early career positions decreasing, some experts<\/a> think the <\/strong>phenomenon predates ChatGPT and could be a sign that there are simply more college graduates than there are early career jobs where a higher degree is a must, along with other structural changes.<\/p>\n

And there are the headlines, which are <\/strong>littered with stories of people getting laid off due to AI<\/a> \u2014 but maybe that\u2019s a function of some CEOs jumping the gun and buying into the hype<\/a> even though AI still leaves much to be desired<\/a> in practice. That\u2019s reflected in the uneven adoption of AI<\/a> across industrial sectors.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile generative AI looks likely to join the ranks of transformative, general purpose technologies,\u201d the Yale study reads, \u201cIt is too soon to tell how disruptive the technology will be to jobs.\u201d<\/p>\n

More on AI and jobs:<\/strong> AI Is Making It Nearly Impossible to Find a Well-Paying Job. Is This the World We Want?<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

The post New Yale Study Finds AI Has Had Essentially Zero Impact on Jobs<\/a> appeared first on Futurism<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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